Please disable your Ad Blocker to better interact with this website.

Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image Image

Affluent Christian Investor | August 23, 2017

Scroll to top

Top

Posts ByRoger McKinney, Author at Affluent Christian Investor - Page 4 of 5

January 18, 2016 |

Big Short – Good Movie, Bad Economics

The outlaw couple Bonnie and Clyde was not only famous for their bank robberies in the 1930s, they were popular. They lost some of their appeal when they began murdering policemen, but people loved the fact that they robbed banks … Read More

January 6, 2016 |

Market Crash Overdue Says Spitznagel

According to the legendary hedge fund manager and author of The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World, Mark Spitznagel, the stock market should follow Canadian geese and head south any day now. I reviewed his book here … Read More

December 29, 2015 |

How Christmas Ended Starvation and Enriched the West

The world was flat until 1600. Not the shape of the planet. According to the best economic history, standards of living even in 1800 AD hardly differed from those of 5000 BC. TV shows dealing with the ancient past assume … Read More

December 21, 2015 |

The Real Economy Will End the Expansion, Not the Fed

The Fed has done an excellent job of preparing the world for this rate hike so it was already built into market prices. Don’t expect much to happen.

Some economists expect rising interest rates to kill the “recovery” and plunge … Read More

December 15, 2015 |

US in Rut Like Old German Socialism

Mainstream economists and the Federal Reserve are trapped in a rut, condemned to repeating the mantra that monetary policy can save us even though it hasn’t for seven years. Germany after World War I faced a similar situation and the … Read More

December 4, 2015 |

Forget Lousy Christmas Sales, Manufacturing Was Already in Recession

The sales figures for Black Friday are out and they are scary. Brick-and-mortar store sales plummeted 10.4% over the weekend from last year’s levels.

Online sales increased on Black Friday by 14% over last year to $2.7 billion and on … Read More

November 24, 2015 |

Japan, Europe, and Mainstream Monetary Theory are Out of Gas

When a sailor hits a dead spot where the wind refuses to blow he says he is “in irons.” Japan’s economy sailed into the irons this past quarter when its GDP declined for the second quarter in a row … Read More

November 23, 2015 |

Debt Service Burden Signals Downturn

Investors can never have too many omens of disaster and the Bank for International Settlements has given us a new one to watch for signs of impending recessions – the corporate debt service burden.

Authors Mathias Drehmann and Mikael Juselius first wrote … Read More

November 9, 2015 |

How GDP Data Blocks Us From Seeing the Recession

Economists look to GDP to determine if the US economy is in a recession. Generally, it takes two quarters of the economy shrinking (economists call it negative growth, but they’re linguistically challenged) for the National Bureau of Economic Research … Read More

November 2, 2015 |

The Market Outruns Profit

I created a new model of the S&P500 that incorporates more variables and some nonlinear action. The chart at the left shows the results. The blue line represents the quarterly averages of the S&P 500 while the red shows quarterly … Read More

October 27, 2015 |

Fed Shuffles From ZIRP to NIRP

Inflation is fading; the economies of Asia, South America and Europe are collapsing; the people have tasked the central banks with fixing all things economic. Yet, reports by Fed economists show that the recent rounds of money printing through QE … Read More

October 21, 2015 |

The Academic Finance Myth: Markets are a Casino and Life is Random

Another fad in investing, like “smart” beta, is target date funds that allocate assets in an investor’s portfolio by the investor’s age. Target date funds follow an ancient concept: put most of your money, say 90%, in the stock market … Read More

October 12, 2015 |

Good Management Makes for Great Investing

Investors with the time will want to imitate Warren Buffet and invest in a few good companies rather than put up with a host of losers in an index fund, but analyzing individual companies in the way that Ben Graham … Read More

October 7, 2015 |

Currency Wars Round Three

I finally got around to reading James Rickards’ 2011 book Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and really enjoyed most of it.

The best parts are the history of the currency wars, Currency War I (1921-1936), Currency … Read More

September 28, 2015 |

Academic Financial Models Ignore Human Subjectivity

Discounted cash flow (DCF) is the adjustable wrench of modern financial mechanics. Essentially, the analyst forecasts the revenue and costs for several years out and applies an appropriate discount, or interest rate, to calculate what those future dollars are … Read More

September 18, 2015 |

Are New Manufacturing Decline Stats Recession Signs?

In the Ricardo Effect, Hayek’s chief contribution to the Austrian business-cycle theory (ABCT), the turning point in the cycle from expansion to recession happens when the makers of consumer goods and services employee more workers and buy less equipment. … Read More

September 9, 2015 |

Don’t Drink the Schwab Kool-Aid

The Schwab Center for Financial Research recently published an article intended to tranquilize investor nerves after the latest volatility and keep them shoveling funds into the stock market. “Schwab’s Perspective on Recent Market Volatility” begins with

“Global markets may have … Read More

August 31, 2015 |

US Stock Market Predicting Recession?

After the stock market stumbling through the past two weeks, you will hear top mainstream economists repeat the old joke that the market has predicted ten of the last eight recessions. The point of the joke is to belittle the … Read More

August 25, 2015 |

Training the Chinese Dragon in Economics

The story of China’s great leap forward to slightly freer markets is well known. Around 30 million people starved to death in the 1960s and the West fed the Chinese in the 1970s. Deng Xiaoping took over after Mao died … Read More

August 19, 2015 |

Retired Greenspan – Talks Like An Austrian Economist

The government reported recently that productivity in the US rose 1.3% from the last quarter, but that was little comfort to the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, who is worried about the collapse in productivity. Investors should be worried as well. StreetInsider.com … Read More

August 11, 2015 |

Why Mainstream Economists Can’t Even Predict the Past

Mark Twain once said,”Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks,” and “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” In the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) recent statement that the GDP of the US … Read More

August 5, 2015 |

Value Investing and Austrian Economics Beat the Market

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) teaches that no one can beat a general market index over the long run because the market instantly adjusts to all new information. The EMH has been mainstream dogma for longer than Warren Buffet has … Read More

July 31, 2015 |

The Money Horror Picture Show

All is not well with the economy in spite of rising home prices and soaring car sales. The disturbing news comes from money. Losing velocity with money is like losing altitude while flying. It can be hazardous to your health.

Read More

July 22, 2015 |

Driving Off the Cliff: Auto Sales Back at Bubble Levels

The worst recessions in history have all followed excessive investment in housing, personal transportation and the stock market. Today, the US is hitting two out of three. Take a look at the auto sales graph below. US sales have … Read More

Become An Insider!

Sign up for Affluent Investor's free email newsletter and receive a free copy of our report, "How the Trump Impeachment Crusade Costs you Money ."