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Affluent Investor | March 23, 2017

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Posts ByRoger McKinney, Author at Affluent Investor - Page 4 of 4

August 31, 2015 |

US Stock Market Predicting Recession?

After the stock market stumbling through the past two weeks, you will hear top mainstream economists repeat the old joke that the market has predicted ten of the last eight recessions. The point of the joke is to belittle the … Read More

August 25, 2015 |

Training the Chinese Dragon in Economics

The story of China’s great leap forward to slightly freer markets is well known. Around 30 million people starved to death in the 1960s and the West fed the Chinese in the 1970s. Deng Xiaoping took over after Mao died … Read More

August 19, 2015 |

Retired Greenspan – Talks Like An Austrian Economist

The government reported recently that productivity in the US rose 1.3% from the last quarter, but that was little comfort to the Maestro, Alan Greenspan, who is worried about the collapse in productivity. Investors should be worried as well. StreetInsider.com … Read More

August 11, 2015 |

Why Mainstream Economists Can’t Even Predict the Past

Mark Twain once said,”Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks,” and “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.” In the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) recent statement that the GDP of the US … Read More

August 5, 2015 |

Value Investing and Austrian Economics Beat the Market

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) teaches that no one can beat a general market index over the long run because the market instantly adjusts to all new information. The EMH has been mainstream dogma for longer than Warren Buffet has … Read More

July 31, 2015 |

The Money Horror Picture Show

All is not well with the economy in spite of rising home prices and soaring car sales. The disturbing news comes from money. Losing velocity with money is like losing altitude while flying. It can be hazardous to your health.

Read More

July 22, 2015 |

Driving Off the Cliff: Auto Sales Back at Bubble Levels

The worst recessions in history have all followed excessive investment in housing, personal transportation and the stock market. Today, the US is hitting two out of three. Take a look at the auto sales graph below. US sales have … Read More

July 16, 2015 |

China Market Collapse: The Snowflake Which Triggers the Global Avalanche?

Markets that climb to dizzying heights over extended time periods are known as bulls for a reason: they buck. I titled my book on investing Financial Bull Riding for that reason. A bull has been breaking things in China’s stock … Read More

July 9, 2015 |

How Banning Risk Makes This Market Riskier

Mainstream economists, excluding those at the Bank for International Settlements, have stuck with their ancient superstition that recessions are random events, each with its own special cause, known technically as shocks that send the economy spinning out of equilibrium. Central … Read More

July 2, 2015 |

This Ratio Signals Recession

In past articles I have reviewed sound models signaling the Fed’s money printing has made the economic expansion unsustainable. Those included Spitznagel’s Misesian Index, Shiller’s Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio, and others. I just discovered a new one, … Read More

June 19, 2015 |

Mainstream Economists Have Learning Disorder

After the onset of the Great Depression, many economists radically changed their views and adopted Keynes’ “revolution,” which was not a revolution but merely a resurrection of mercantile economics. Mainstream economists don’t understand that because they don’t take economic history … Read More

June 11, 2015 |

Fed to Raise Rates? Not If This is a Recession

The bond market fell last week, wiping out gains for the year. Some blame it on Mario Draghi’s comments after an ECB meeting in which he expressed indifference to volatility in bond markets. If it is true that Draghi’s statements motivated … Read More

June 5, 2015 |

Why The Fed Can’t Raise Rates

The VIX (volatility index) is in a coma, so most investors are dozing while danger signs about the current stock market pop up. The idea that the Fed causes recessions by raising interest rates has relaxed many investors. Some … Read More

May 29, 2015 |

Corporate Buybacks Keep Market Airborne

The stock market has surged lately and a lot of analysts credit it to stock buybacks by corporations. As the chart here shows, buybacks have reached dizzying heights. Corporations are purchasing their own stocks because corporate profits hit record … Read More

May 27, 2015 |

Bitcoin Won’t Save Us

Libertarians have waxed poetic about Bitcoin for years. It pokes a finger in the eye of the state by breaking the state’s monopoly on money and rescues citizens from a rapidly eroding dollar. But aside from the block chain … Read More

May 19, 2015 |

Government’s War on Cash, Resistance Tactics

Mainstream economists have hated cash since the Great Depression because in their business cycle “theory” they assume that people quit spending and decide to hold more cash. That stoppage in spending constipates the “circular flow” model of economics they … Read More

May 1, 2015 |

UN Gold Standard On The Way?

The US dollar’s position as the dominant reserve currency is coming under assault from at least three directions. The UN announced in 2009 plans to mint silver and gold coins to be used in international trade. Socialist economist Joseph Stiglitz, … Read More

April 29, 2015 |

Why Baltimore Burns

Baltimore is burning and the book most relevant to the tragedy, and to that of Ferguson, MO, Detroit, MI, and many other cities in the US is Friedrich Hayek’s Road to Serfdom.

The media will pimp the idea that … Read More

April 22, 2015 |

Central Banks as Vestigial Organs

In his early years Hayek anticipated that the monetary theory of trade cycles, now known as the Austrian business-cycle theory (ABCT) would become widely known by business people who would refuse to borrow when the central bank reduced interest … Read More

April 10, 2015 |

Investors Stuck in the Indifference Zone

The graph shows the weekly averages for the S&P 500 since October of last year.  The index has been stuck in a trading range between 1990 and 2110 for the past six months. A move to 2200 as the … Read More

April 8, 2015 |

S&P 2200

While profits in the energy sector cratered in the last quarter, a jump in retail profits of $28 billion in the fourth quarter from the previous year suggests that the S&P 500 will continue to rise. The forecast calls … Read More

January 7, 2015 |

God Says Don’t Even Think About Taking Someone’s Property

The Jewish concept of property began with God creating man in his image. The Torah records, “Then God said, ‘Let us make man in our image, in our likeness, and let them rule over the fish of the sea and … Read More

December 12, 2014 |

Is God a Libertarian?
Ancient Israel Was A Nation Without a Congress

The only branch of modern or ancient government that God included in Israel was the court system. The courts of ancient Israel settled disputes between citizens. Families and tribes enforced the decisions of the judges. The lower courts judged … Read More

November 26, 2014 |

Is God a Libertarian?
How the Bible Established a Country Without an Executive Branch

Many Christian writers on economics claim that the Bible endorses neither capitalism nor socialism. They cut off the heads of both systems and install their own, often referred to as a “third way,” in which they scavenge through the … Read More

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