Blood in the Streets
I was never any good at timing the market and picking intra-day winners. However, I have developed a keen sense of when an asset class is really out of whack pricewise. The NASDAQ closing in on 5000 comes to mind. The credit bubble of 2006 also deserves mention. I remember clearly the feeling in my gut while looking at the hyperbolic charts during those times. You can just see the big red light flashing light – this is way too high!
I get that feeling in the gut on the downside as well. If there was one lesson I learned from my time on Wall Street it was to buy things when no one else wants them. Sure, you don’t want to catch a falling knife, but generally if you see an asset correct substantially along with frenzied selling as leveraged positions are unwound, it’s time to buy. You want to buy when there is blood in the streets.
I have that feeling again with gold.
Obviously lots of people were leveraged into their gold positions and got caught with their pants down. There is a lot of pain out there – which is a good thing! I can’t imagine with all of the fiscal trainwrecks in the Western world, that gold will go out of fashion anytime soon. Where are governments going to put their money if they can’t trust the dollar or the euro? There will be a place for gold in every portfolio – with the smart money that is.
I don’t know if we are at the exact bottom but I think there is a strong case to be made that if you buy gold now you will be very happy in a year.
But don’t wait – the price recovery for gold may happen sooner than you think.
Born in Georgia and raised in Savannah, Todd spent his early summers in Carp Lake, Michigan listening to the vivid stories of his grandparents recalling their youth in the northern wilderness. Ever since his earliest days, he loved story telling.
Todd left Savannah in 1982 to attend the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, CO where he studied aeronautical engineering. Upon graduation in 1986, he immediately left the Academy for flight school. His initial assignment was flying Combat Search and Rescue helicopters at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska. In the UHAE (Unique Harsh Arctic Environment-pronounced “Yoo Hay” by Alaskans) he flew local rescue missions and was also deployed throughout Asia. During this time he was credited with saving many lives and even more assists. In addition to flying exciting missions, Todd also managed to graduate from the University of Alaska Anchorage with an M.S. in Engineering Management. In 1990 he volunteered for Special Operations and went back to flight school. In 1991 he was assigned to the 20th Special Operations Squadron at Hurlburt Field, FL, flying MH-53J Pave Low helicopters. Immediately he was deployed to Kuwait. Over the next three years he was active in classified missions in support of counterterrorism under the control of the National Command Authority and deployed throughout the world. His customers included SEAL Team Six and Delta Force. He left the Air Force as a Captain in 1994. During this hectic period in his life he found time to write his first novel, The Ultimate Solution which was never published. He did publish an article in the Armed Force’s Journal in 1994 on Special Operations Aviation.
1994 found Todd joining an investment bank and earning a chance to expand his knowledge of his other passion, Finance. During this second career he became highly knowledgeable in Emerging Markets Fixed Income and traveled a great deal internationally with a focus on the Caribbean. He has conducted business in over forty different countries. He became acutely aware of the consequences of economic decisions and their effect on national and economic security.
However, Todd.’s love of storytelling was uncontrollable. He left the financial business in 2011 to write. Currency was published in December of that year. Once he began typing, he never stopped.
Todd lives on a three-hundred year old farm in Connecticut deeded by King George of England with his children.