Blood in the Streets
I was never any good at timing the market and picking intra-day winners. However, I have developed a keen sense of when an asset class is really out of whack pricewise. The NASDAQ closing in on 5000 comes to mind. The credit bubble of 2006 also deserves mention. I remember clearly the feeling in my gut while looking at the hyperbolic charts during those times. You can just see the big red light flashing light – this is way too high!
I get that feeling in the gut on the downside as well. If there was one lesson I learned from my time on Wall Street it was to buy things when no one else wants them. Sure, you don’t want to catch a falling knife, but generally if you see an asset correct substantially along with frenzied selling as leveraged positions are unwound, it’s time to buy. You want to buy when there is blood in the streets.
I have that feeling again with gold.
Obviously lots of people were leveraged into their gold positions and got caught with their pants down. There is a lot of pain out there – which is a good thing! I can’t imagine with all of the fiscal trainwrecks in the Western world, that gold will go out of fashion anytime soon. Where are governments going to put their money if they can’t trust the dollar or the euro? There will be a place for gold in every portfolio – with the smart money that is.
I don’t know if we are at the exact bottom but I think there is a strong case to be made that if you buy gold now you will be very happy in a year.
But don’t wait – the price recovery for gold may happen sooner than you think.