Todd Wood | On July 6, 2013

Poll after poll is being released that points out the obvious: The public is just not that worried about global warming.  I think that’s probably because human-caused global warming doesn’t exist!  Yes, the climate changes–it has changed for millions of years–but it’s not caused by us Homo sapiens.  We have released the most CO2 ever into the atmosphere over the last twenty years and guess what?  No global warming!  I think it’s fairly obvious that the climate changes due to sunspots and other natural cycles.  By the way, don’t plants need CO2 to exist?  And the left calls it a pollutant?  Where’s the logic in that?

Anyway, back to the point.  If global warming is not going to cause a tidal wave over New York City in the near future, how can we profit from this realization?  The interesting fact that coincides with the lowering of the public anxiety level is that in the last decade, North America has discovered the yellow brick road to energy independence!  We are sitting on 1.4 trillion barrels of shale oil and even more natural gas!  The only thing standing in our way is having the will to extract it.  Imagine, no more reliance on foreign oil!  I for one think this outcome will be realized quicker than anyone else seems to think, and is the most consequential geopolitical change in centuries.

So how do you make money from this thesis?  Well first of all, U.S. companies are out in front when it comes to this technology.  There will be a LOT of wells to be drilled.  I think all of this supply could eventually put pressure on oil prices and be damaging to the profits of big oil.  However, the suppliers of all of this drilling equipment will do very well.  So I would do some research on oilfield service companies and pick your entry points.

If you follow this line of thought further, North America could be awash in cheap energy in a fairly short period of time.  So what types of industry will profit from lowered fuel costs?  Airlines come to mind.  Energy intensive manufacturing also will benefit.

The harder question is what will happen to the value of the U.S. Dollar?  Lower commodity prices typically lead to a higher USD.  However, there will also be pressure on the dollar from the removal of the USD as a reserve and trading currency.  So, the FX outcome is a bit murkier.

Of course this thesis rests on the political winds to come.  I hope they are winds of change and the U.S. government gets out of the way of our own success.  However, even if the left is successful in stopping this energy revolution in the short run, I think the pressure will become too great over time.  They will have to allow this transformation to move forward. Otherwise, their agenda is not the wellbeing of the United States but something much darker.

Todd Wood

Born in Georgia and raised in Savannah, Todd spent his early summers in Carp Lake, Michigan listening to the vivid stories of his grandparents recalling their youth in the northern wilderness. Ever since his earliest days, he loved story telling.

Todd left Savannah in 1982 to attend the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, CO where he studied aeronautical engineering. Upon graduation in 1986, he immediately left the Academy for flight school. His initial assignment was flying Combat Search and Rescue helicopters at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska. In the UHAE (Unique Harsh Arctic Environment-pronounced “Yoo Hay” by Alaskans) he flew local rescue missions and was also deployed throughout Asia. During this time he was credited with saving many lives and even more assists. In addition to flying exciting missions, Todd also managed to graduate from the University of Alaska Anchorage with an M.S. in Engineering Management. In 1990 he volunteered for Special Operations and went back to flight school. In 1991 he was assigned to the 20th Special Operations Squadron at Hurlburt Field, FL, flying MH-53J Pave Low helicopters. Immediately he was deployed to Kuwait. Over the next three years he was active in classified missions in support of counterterrorism under the control of the National Command Authority and deployed throughout the world. His customers included SEAL Team Six and Delta Force. He left the Air Force as a Captain in 1994. During this hectic period in his life he found time to write his first novel, The Ultimate Solution which was never published. He did publish an article in the Armed Force’s Journal in 1994 on Special Operations Aviation.

1994 found Todd joining an investment bank and earning a chance to expand his knowledge of his other passion, Finance. During this second career he became highly knowledgeable in Emerging Markets Fixed Income and traveled a great deal internationally with a focus on the Caribbean. He has conducted business in over forty different countries. He became acutely aware of the consequences of economic decisions and their effect on national and economic security.

However, Todd.’s love of storytelling was uncontrollable. He left the financial business in 2011 to write. Currency was published in December of that year. Once he began typing, he never stopped.

Todd lives on a three-hundred year old farm in Connecticut deeded by King George of England with his children.