11 Million Missing Jobs and Counting
President Obama and others that tout how far the U.S. economy has come since 2008-2009 miss the big point. We’re nowhere near where we should be after more than four years of a so-called recovery.
Are we in a better spot than during the recession that ran from late 2007 to mid-2009? Of course, we are.
Is economic growth and job creation where it should be at this point in a recovery? Of course not. It’s not even close.
Last month, I did a quick analysis of where we should be on the jobs front. Consider: “If the employment ratio was merely at a solid level – such as set in 2006 – there would be 154.6 million people employed currently, compared to the actual 143.6 million in May. That is, we would have 11 million more jobs. And rather than still being down by some 2.7 million jobs relative to the high hit in November 2007, we would be up 8 million jobs.”
As a result, we should not be surprised by a Gallup finding released on July 24 that only 25 percent of Americans believe that is a good time to find a quality job. The good news? That’s up from 17% in July 2012 and 10% in July 2011. However, it compares to 43 percent in July 2007, before the recession. The high of 48 percent was hit in January 2007, with Gallup first asking the question in 2001.
On the flip side, by the way, 70 percent said it’s a bad time to find a quality job. That was down from 88 percent in July 2011 and 81 percent in July 2012. But it compares poorly to the 50 percent registered in July 2007.
Let’s hope that the trend continues to improve. But considering that ObamaCare unleashes its full fury in 2014 and 2015, while also factoring in Dodd-Frank and EPA regulations, and it’s hard to see a robust optimism about finding quality jobs developing because it’s going to continue to become more costly to create such jobs.
Raymond J. Keating is chief economist for a national small business organization; a weekly columnist with Long Island Business News; a former Newsday weekly columnist; and an adjunct professor in the MBA program at the Townsend School of Business at Dowling College.
Author of numerous books, his latest business and policy books are “Chuck” vs. the Business World: Business Tips on TV and Unleashing Small Business Through IP: Protecting Intellectual Property, Driving Entrepreneurship. Keating also is a novelist, penning a series of Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers.
His articles have appeared in a wide range of additional periodicals, including The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, New York Post, Los Angeles Daily News, The Boston Globe, National Review, The Washington Times, Investor’s Business Daily, New York Daily News, Detroit Free Press, Chicago Tribune, Providence Journal Bulletin, and Cincinnati Enquirer.