Data is Clear: Trump Helps Jeb and Hillary
It has now been two weeks since the first Republican Presidential debate, and opinion polls are now being released. The changes in the past two weeks have been predictable: Donald Trump rises, Jeb Bush falls, and previously-unknowns such as John Kasich are now actually showing up in polls. What is more interesting are the changes seen in the political betting markets.
This chart shows the averaged probability from over a dozen political betting markets that have assigned to the various Republican candidates since May 16th, 2015.
One of the more interesting changes is the rise of Jeb Bush. Opinion polls show a sizable decline in his favorability among Republican voters, but in the eyes of political bettors, his debate performance increased his already high chances of winning the nomination. Jeb’s performance in the debate was relatively inoffensive. He didn’t say much, and what he said wasn’t particularly controversial, which does not win support in the early stages of an election.
We can also see a clear trend regarding Trump. As he rises, so does Jeb, and both Rand Paul and Marco Rubio – two non-establishment candidates – fall. Trump’s controversy during and after the debate continue to distract media attention away from non-establishment candidates.
This chart shows the probability of a Democrat or Republican candidate winning the Presidency.
The debate had little impact in this category, except for a small decline in the chances of a Republican win, and a rise in the chances of an independent win. This is obviously due to Trump saying he wouldn’t rule out running as an independent.
This chart shows the probability of an individual candidate winning the Presidency.
The debate had little influence in the chances of the top 4 candidates in the general election. Hillary, Jeb, Rubio, and Walker were essentially unaffected. The non-establishment candidates had more variance, with Rand Paul’s chances falling considerably, Donald Trump’s going up from just under 1% to 4%, and Joe Biden disappearing from the top 8.
While the debate did have a large impact on the candidates standing in opinion polls, it did not have the same effect on political bettors. There were slight changes, but it was mostly a continuation of trends that have been present for weeks: Donald Trump and Jeb Bush rising, pushing the non-establishment candidates out of the spotlight.
Trending Now on Affluent Christian Investor
Sorry. No data so far.
The Affluent Mix
Government Spending And Your Heart Rate March 4, 2021 | David Bahnsen

Tucker Carlson Ices Industrial Policy By Criticizing Wind Power... March 4, 2021 | Roger McKinney

What This Supply Chain ‘Mood Ring’ Tells Us About The Recovery... March 4, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Internet Oligarchs Attack Free Speech March 3, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

Envy And Human Nature March 3, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

This Data Shows How Weird This Recession Was... March 3, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Another Theologian Falls For Socialism February 17, 2021 | Roger McKinney

GDP Bounced Back, Sort Of February 17, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Apathy And Envy For All February 17, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

The Global Stock Market Decompression February 17, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Why Things Are Bad And What You Should Do About It... February 17, 2021 | Terry Applegate

Gamestop Scandal: Who Is The Real Culprit?... February 11, 2021 | Roger McKinney

Who Has Economic Mobility? Everyone! February 11, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

Biden Deletes China COVID Evidence February 11, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

How Companies Pay Shareholders: High Earnings Quality Companies Do More Buybacks... February 11, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Volatility Vs. Capital Erosion February 11, 2021 | David Bahnsen

When Will The Party End? February 11, 2021 | Michael Pento

Back To Buybacks: Is It More About Dilution Than Concentration?... February 11, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Even Amnesty International Is Criticizing Facebook Censorship... February 5, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

The War On Poverty’s Results February 5, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

How Companies Pay Shareholders: Total Shareholder Payout A Better Approach?... February 5, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Interest Rate Threshold Keeps Dropping February 5, 2021 | Michael Pento

Join the conversation!
We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, vulgarity, profanity, all caps, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain a courteous and useful public environment where we can engage in reasonable discourse.