New Hampshire Was Terrible for the Establishment

Donald John Trump, Republican presidential candidate
(Photo by Gage Skidmore) (CC BY-SA) (Resized/Cropped)
The New Hampshire primary was a bad night for the Republican Establishment. Not because Trump got twice as many votes as the runner-up; that was expected for months. Nor because Ted Cruz slightly outperformed expectations. It was a bad night for the establishment because establishment candidates did well.
I’ve made it clear before that I think Marco Rubio is the only candidate acceptable to the establishment who can beat Trump and beat Clinton. I say “acceptable to the establishment” for two reasons: first, Cruz does have a non-marginal chance of beating Trump for the nomination, and has a decent shot against Clinton – especially if there’s a recession before November. But he’s clearly unacceptable to the establishment. Second, Rubio is, or should be, acceptable to the establishment, but he’s not establishment. On everything except immigration, Rubio is a genuine, fully committed conservative. Sites that rank candidates based on their positions consistently rank Rubio and Cruz as the most conservative, and Kasich and Christie – who has now dropped out – as the most moderate. Nevertheless, the media continues to label Rubio as an establishment candidate, lumping him in with Jeb, Kasich, and Christie.
The problem is, the actual establishment candidates did well; Kasich in particular, but Jeb also had a good night. This is bad for the establishment because it gives the donor class and establishment-aligned politicians incentive to continue financially support and roll out endorsements to candidates who are never going to win. There is some element of arrogance among the establishment class if they genuinely think they can make Jeb or Kasich the nominee.
The simple fact is if the establishment doesn’t want Trump or Cruz, they’re going to have to compromise and get behind Rubio. The base will never accept Jeb as the nominee. But they could, perhaps begrudgingly, accept Rubio.
If either Trump or Cruz eventually becomes the nominee, the mainstream media is going to view it as proof that the Republican Party is in disarray and needs to be dramatically reformed. The actual explanation would be more likely this: there were too many candidates who had egos too large to drop out in time for the party to coalesce around Rubio, “the conservative that can win,” and that the party leaders were too arrogant to realize that they couldn’t force another moderate like Romney or McCain.
Now it’s well within the realm of possibility for Rubio to place well in South Carolina and Nevada, while Jeb and Kasich have underwhelming or unremarkable performances. If that happens, Rubio is likely to be back on top and the endorsements and donations will pick back up. Nevertheless, the establishment is playing a dangerous game by continuing to back Jeb. The longer they do it, the more likely Republican Nominee Trump becomes.
Trending Now on Affluent Christian Investor
Sorry. No data so far.
The Affluent Mix
Biden Oblivious To Illegal Immigration Issues... August 2, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

Rob Arnott On Bubbles, Inflation, And Once-In-A-Generation Investment Opportunit... August 2, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

The Federal Reserve’s Massive Theft Of Stability... August 2, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

What To Do About This Difficult Market? August 2, 2021 | David Bahnsen

Letter On The Politicization Of Corporations... July 26, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Peak Of The Fake Bull Market July 26, 2021 | Michael Pento

Woodrow Wilson’s Administrative State vs. Gold... July 26, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

Dividends, Energy, And Crypto July 26, 2021 | David Bahnsen

Whose Side Are You On? July 26, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

Media, Left Ignore These Dangers July 19, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

Mark Skousen On FreedomFest And How To Measure The Whole Economy... July 19, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Quantifying The Quantitative, Or Making Easy The Easing... July 19, 2021 | David Bahnsen

The Gold Standard Means A Rising Standard Of Living... July 19, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

Book Review: Brian Domitrovic Reveals The Monetary Genius Of Arthur Laffer... July 19, 2021 | John Tamny

Steve Forbes: Time To Worry About Inflation, Not Hyperinflation... July 12, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

UFOs Rescue Biden July 12, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

Read This Classical Economist’s 200 Year Old Warning About Paper Money... July 12, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger

How Central Banks Murdered The Markets July 12, 2021 | Michael Pento

Everything There Is To Know About The Stock Market... July 12, 2021 | David Bahnsen

AT&T CEO: We’re Ill Equipped For Politics, And We’re Spending A Lot Of ... July 6, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer

Internet Bias Distorts National Conversation... July 6, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio

The Halfway Point Of 2021 July 6, 2021 | David Bahnsen

Join the conversation!
We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, vulgarity, profanity, all caps, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain a courteous and useful public environment where we can engage in reasonable discourse.