Data Says Trump Will Lose Presidency and Senate Too
Donald John Trump, Republican candidate for United States President
(Photo by Gage Skidmore) (CC BY-SA) (Resized/Cropped)
The media attention has, understandably, been focused almost entirely on the Presidential race. Relatively little attention has been paid to what impact Donald Trump’s nomination will have on Republican’s chances of retaining the Senate and House majorities. According to the Iowa Electronic Markets, a US-based political futures market, Trump’s candidacy has put both houses of Congress in danger of returning to the Democrats.
Republican control of the Senate has been precarious since it was achieved in 2014. At the start of this cycle, political futures markets put the chances of the Democrats taking back the majority in the Senate at just over 50%. Today, that same outcome is just over 70%.
This chart shows the odds of Donald Trump becoming the Republican nominee, overlaid with the odds of the Democrats winning a majority in the Senate, and the Democrats winning a majority in the House.
The light-blue line is the probability of a Democrat controlled house. It was about 5% in July of 2015, when Donald Trump announced his candidacy. That number went up as the probability of Trump being the nominee went up. Today, the Democrats stand a non-marginal 30% chance of taking back the House.
Trump’s near constant media coverage, most of it negative, has resulted in him having the highest net unfavorable ratings of any nominee for either major party since unfavorable ratings have been recorded. The favorable ratings for the Republican party in general have gone down with Trump’s.
We’re now at the point where most Trump supporters feel as though the GOP has betrayed them by constantly trying to undermine Trump, and most non-Trump supporters feel that, to paraphrase Paul Ryan, the standard-bearer of the party does not bear their standards. Consequent that, the Republican party is now in a much weaker position at all levels of government than it was at this time last year.
The most probable outcome of the November election now is Hillary Clinton as President, with a Democratic majority in the Senate and a slimmer Republican majority in the House. That means that Clinton will likely be able to nominate whichever Supreme Court Justice she likes.
Trending Now on Affluent Christian Investor
Sorry. No data so far.
Right Report
Follow Us
The Affluent Mix
Biden Oblivious To Illegal Immigration Issues... August 2, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio
Rob Arnott On Bubbles, Inflation, And Once-In-A-Generation Investment Opportunit... August 2, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer
The Federal Reserve’s Massive Theft Of Stability... August 2, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger
What To Do About This Difficult Market? August 2, 2021 | David Bahnsen
Letter On The Politicization Of Corporations... July 26, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer
Peak Of The Fake Bull Market July 26, 2021 | Michael Pento
Woodrow Wilson’s Administrative State vs. Gold... July 26, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger
Dividends, Energy, And Crypto July 26, 2021 | David Bahnsen
Whose Side Are You On? July 26, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio
Media, Left Ignore These Dangers July 19, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio
Mark Skousen On FreedomFest And How To Measure The Whole Economy... July 19, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer
Quantifying The Quantitative, Or Making Easy The Easing... July 19, 2021 | David Bahnsen
The Gold Standard Means A Rising Standard Of Living... July 19, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger
Book Review: Brian Domitrovic Reveals The Monetary Genius Of Arthur Laffer... July 19, 2021 | John Tamny
Steve Forbes: Time To Worry About Inflation, Not Hyperinflation... July 12, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer
UFOs Rescue Biden July 12, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio
Read This Classical Economist’s 200 Year Old Warning About Paper Money... July 12, 2021 | Jim Huntzinger
How Central Banks Murdered The Markets July 12, 2021 | Michael Pento
Everything There Is To Know About The Stock Market... July 12, 2021 | David Bahnsen
AT&T CEO: We’re Ill Equipped For Politics, And We’re Spending A Lot Of ... July 6, 2021 | Jerry Bowyer
Internet Bias Distorts National Conversation... July 6, 2021 | Frank Vernuccio
The Halfway Point Of 2021 July 6, 2021 | David Bahnsen
Join the conversation!
We have no tolerance for comments containing violence, racism, vulgarity, profanity, all caps, or discourteous behavior. Thank you for partnering with us to maintain a courteous and useful public environment where we can engage in reasonable discourse.