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Affluent Christian Investor | December 12, 2018

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How Bolsonaro Effect Saved Brazil’s Plunging Markets

President-elect of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro.

Last quarter, the investible (meaning the emerging market category and above, with highly liquid markets with readily investible publicly traded stock market indices) world’s highest returning countries were:

  1. Poland
  2. Thailand
  3. Mexico
  4. Sweden
  5. Norway
  6. Switzerland
  7. Israel
  8. United States

The worst Q3 2018 performers – from worst to less bad – were:

  1. Turkey
  2. Greece
  3. China
  4. Colombia
  5. South Africa

Compared to last quarter when the two worst performers were Brazil and Turkey, Brazil reversed course and performed well this quarter, but Turkey continued downward. This is because Brazil showed some signs of reversing course on leadership. A conservative populist coalition of ‘Bulls, Bibles and Bullets’ — meaning farmers, evangelical Christians, and military families. The then-candidate, Jair Bolsonaro, has been described as the ‘Brazilian Trump’. Markets have loved the emergence of this political movement’s combination of popular appeal and embrace of growth-oriented policies. Brazil’s markets reversed course, because it’s beginning to look like Brazil’s new leadership will be a reverse of course.

Turkey, on the other hand, doubled down on authoritarianism in the 3rd quarter and their losses continued. Interestingly, subsequent to the 3rd quarter, Turkey finally agreed to give in to American pressure and release a persecuted pastor, and markets responded well to that tilt back towards the free west, even if only by way of capitulation to pressure.

 

 

Originally published on Townhall Finance.

Jerry Bowyer is a Forbes contributor, contributing editor of AffluentInvestor.com, and Senior Fellow in Business Economics at The Center for Cultural Leadership.

Jerry has compiled an impressive record as a leading thinker in finance and economics. He worked as an auditor and a tax consultant with Arthur Anderson, as Vice President of the Beechwood Company which is the family office associated with Federated Investors, and has consulted in various privatization efforts for Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. He founded the influential economic think tank, the Allegheny Institute, and has lectured extensively at universities, businesses and civic groups.

Jerry has been a member of three investment committees, among which is Benchmark Financial, Pittsburgh’s largest financial services firm. Jerry had been a regular commentator on Fox Business News and Fox News. He was formerly a CNBC Contributor, has guest-hosted “The Kudlow Report”, and has written for CNBC.com, National Review Online, and The Wall Street Journal, as well as many other publications. He is the author of The Bush Boom and more recently The Free Market Capitalist’s Survival Guide, published by HarperCollins. Jerry is the President of Bowyer Research.

Jerry consulted extensively with the Bush White House on matters pertaining to the recent economic crisis. He has been quoted in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes Magazine, The International Herald Tribune and various local newspapers. He has been a contributing editor of National Review Online, The New York Sun and Townhall Magazine. Jerry has hosted daily radio and TV programs and was one of the founding members of WQED’s On-Q Friday Roundtable. He has guest-hosted the Bill Bennett radio program as well as radio programs in Chicago, Dallas and Los Angeles.

Jerry is the former host of WorldView, a nationally syndicated Sunday-morning political talk show created on the model of Meet The Press. On WorldView, Jerry interviewed distinguished guests including the Vice President, Treasury Secretary, HUD Secretary, former Secretary of Sate Condoleezza Rice, former Presidential Advisor Carl Rove, former Attorney General Edwin Meese and publisher Steve Forbes.

Jerry has taught social ethics at Ottawa Theological Hall, public policy at Saint Vincent’s College, and guest lectured at Carnegie Mellon’s graduate Heinz School of Public Policy. In 1997 Jerry gave the commencement address at his alma mater, Robert Morris University. He was the youngest speaker in the history of the school, and the school received more requests for transcripts of Jerry’s speech than at any other time in its 120-year history.

Jerry lives in Pennsylvania with his wife, Susan, and the youngest three of their seven children.

 

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