The 2020 Election And Your Portfolio

In all my years of managing client capital, covering now six Presidential election cycles, I have never received as many inquiries, expressions of anxiety, questions, and general concerns about what this election means to investors.  Across all mediums, I have … Read More

If You Want To Worry About Something, Worry About This

Market Redux

The market closed last week at 28,650.  On Thursday it has reached 29,200 before declining 800 points on the day.  As of press time Friday, the market is down another 500+ points, so down ~900 on the week. … Read More

The Fed In A Post-COVID World

One of my favorite books about the 2008 financial crisis (I read over 75 of them, and wrote one myself) was David Wessel’s In Fed We Trust.  The title may have been too sacrilegious, but his point on the role(s) the Fed … Read More

“We’re All Ideologues Now”

I think most people know that the way someone interprets the political scene is largely determined by their own political ideology (as it should be).  Apart from the personality aspects that may enter the fray, most people have a set … Read More

Is A Vaccine Coming For Markets?

The first week of August started off surprisingly strong, with further moves higher in all market indices, and much “less bad” economic data than has been expected.  “Less bad than expected” is a consistent theme right now, and it evokes … Read More

How Powerful Is The Fed?

There are few things people want me to opine on these days more than what I think will happen to the market in light of all the COVID and economic uncertainty, and what I think about big tech in light … Read More

Financial Certainty In A Time Of Global Uncertainty

You’ll only have to read a few sections of today’s Dividend Cafe to be reminded of the uncertainty that exists around the world today.  Europe may seem to have rectified some parts of their uncertainty, but they invited new uncertainties … Read More

Ticking Time Clock On Stimulus 4.0

I wrote last week about an understanding of “trade-offs” being one of the defining characteristics of a grown-up, and what that means when applied to the life of an investor.  Indeed, we make decisions around our finances every day that … Read More

What’s Happened To Oil Prices In 2020, And Why

This week’s Dividend Cafe is a long and juicy one – lots of topics, lots of practical subjects (see list below), and plenty for the wonky types and those who loathe such verbose diversions.  But what is most important … Read More

The Real Lesson Of 2020 So Far

In this week’s Dividend Cafe we will look at:

• The real lesson of 2020 so far, evidenced in Q1 being the 9th worst quarter in history, and Q2 being the 9th best quarter in history, and what … Read More

Some Clarification On COVID-19 And The Current Media Coverage

Last week was another roller-coaster  in the markets, and we ended the week with a sell-off after up and down days every day.  Net on the week the market was basically down about 750 points, but that came about … Read More

Let’s Be Very Clear About Bear And Bull Markets

Thursday’s market drop did not stress me out.  There is a reason why I am telling you this.

1,800 points came off the Dow in one day, the fourth worst day of the year by the way, and while I … Read More

A Decade-Long Viewpoint On The Oil & Gas Story

I had promised more of a summary this week on my takeaways from the extraordinary Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference, and indeed, this week’s Dividend Cafe forced me to deal with several issues that were front and center at the … Read More

April Was Best Month For Stocks Since 1987

The month of April came to an end this week.  It feels weird to say it was the best month for stocks since January of 1987, even though it was.  When stocks suffer the kind of rapid and violent moves … Read More

The Worst Argument For A Recession

The unforced error it will be difficult to wish away

It is becoming more clear that the business expansion underway before the trade war has taken on water that it may not be able to drain away even if … Read More

There’s Never Been A Recession When Profits Were Growing

By the time you are reading this we are 2/3rd’s of the way through 2018, with the final trimester representing the greatest time of year (that is, of course, a reference to football season and the holidays, and not … Read More

Global Tensions Ripple Through World Markets

Dear Valued Clients and Friends,

Some intriguing (two-way) volatility returned to the markets this week, as the dollar made new highs on the year, emerging markets roiled around currency concerns, and attention to trade talks zigged the markets some days … Read More

Solving The Trade Deficit Problem

Markets are up this week again as earnings season moves further towards completion, and continued statements around tariffs and retaliatory tariffs are met with continued apathy by the market.  I’d like to think this week’s visit in the Dividend Café … Read More

Trade, Growth, Inflation And Real Estate Watch

The market sits substantially off the lows of Q1 and Q2, and yet with the significant headwind of trade and tariff uncertainty continuing to linger.  This week was “case in point” of the underlying tension in markets – as … Read More

Two Things Could Push Markets Higher: Dovish Fed And End Of The Trade War

I trust everyone had a wonderful Independence Day, and that the second half of your 2018’s has started off the way you wish.  Markets have zigged and zagged a bit this week, though when half of the country is really … Read More