How I Nailed The May Payroll Bust

The Labor Department reported this morning that the US economy added just 75,000 nonfarm jobs in May, below the lowest estimate in the Bloomberg consensus survey, which called for an increase of 175,000.

That is, not a single Wall Street … Read More

U.S. Fed Mumbles, Stocks Stumble

U.S. equity markets crashed, giving up earlier gains of more than 1%, after the Federal Reserve took less notice of market risks than investors had hoped.

Investors headed for the doors when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell insisted during his press … Read More

The China Trade Reality Show

For at least a month, there has been no doubt that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping would agree to agree at the Buenos Aires summit. The threats, remonstrations and hints of high officials were for the most part scripted. … Read More

It’s Time To Sell US Stocks

By two simple valuation measures, the S&P 500 is overvalued by the biggest margin in twenty years.

First, the S&P 500 level has run ahead of earnings per share to an extent not seen since 1999, right before the great … Read More

China Seeks Framework For November Deal With Trump

Ahead of a possible meeting next month between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, the White House tempered any optimism that a trade truce with Beijing is imminent when top economic advisor Larry Kudlow accused China … Read More

The World Lines Up Against The US

The United States starts a tariff war with China. Japan and Germany jump at the chance to gain market share in China’s booming auto industry and boost their capacity in China, the world’s fastest-growing passenger car market.

The United … Read More

Open Letter To Larry Kudlow: You Need A Different China Strategy

Dear Larry: China threatens American preeminence and President Trump is right to worry about it. But you’re going about it the wrong way, and your approach will produce results very different from what you expect or want.

When you say: … Read More

Consumption Is America’s Achilles’ Heel In A Trade War

US household budgets are so stretched that relatively small price increases cause a reduction in spending. That already is clear from consumer response to rising oil prices.

If the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese and other imports turn into noticeable … Read More

The Idiocracy Has Overthrown Us

The Republican Establishment cannot help but err because its intellectual foundations are flawed. There is broad conservative intellectual consensus which harks back to T.S. Eliot and Matthew Arnold (via thinkers as diverse as Russell Kirk and Lionel Trilling). Arnold’s passion … Read More