Rob Arnott On Bubbles, Inflation, And Once-In-A-Generation Investment Opportunities

As of today, keen observers such as Rob Arnott can discern grim portents about the economic and political future of the United States. Of course, circumstances can change, but at present, both political parties have surrendered fiscal restraint, spending … Read More

Letter On The Politicization Of Corporations

I am part of a team that designs and manages investment funds. My colleagues and I have become increasingly concerned about the politicization of publicly traded companies. Rather than boycott or complain, however, we decided to talk to the managers … Read More

Mark Skousen On FreedomFest And How To Measure The Whole Economy

Dr. Mark Skousen of Chapman University has accomplished a rare achievement in economics: he has created an alternative to GDP and persuaded the Bureau of Economic Analysis to track and report it along with GDP. The theoretical foundations of Gross … Read More

Steve Forbes: Time To Worry About Inflation, Not Hyperinflation

In a recent interview for my podcast, Meeting of Minds With Jerry Bowyer, Steve Forbes, Editor-in-Chief of Forbes Magazine, Chairman of the Board of its parent company, and former presidential candidate, joined me to talk about the rising risk of inflation. … Read More

AT&T CEO: We’re Ill Equipped For Politics, And We’re Spending A Lot Of Time On It

With contributions by Charles Bowyer.

Should the management of AT&T, the world’s largest telecommunications company, be spending “a lot of time” on political issues? Most people would likely say no: AT&T is a corporation, not a Super PAC. Yet at the company’s … Read More

Os Guinness On The Left’s Long March From Counterculture To Oligarchy

I recently had a discussion with British author and critic Os Guinness over the new addition to his first major work, The Dust of Death, as well as his new book, The Magna Carta of Humanity. As a decades-long reader of Os … Read More

FreedomFest, An Appreciation

I’ve been invited to speak at FreedomFest this year. FreedomFest, founded by my friend Mark Skousen, one of the great economists of our time, has become the largest and most influential gathering of thinkers devoted to promoting freedom in all … Read More

Peter Thiel On Theology

The New Yorker says Peter Thiel “might be the most successful technology investor in the world.” I’m not sure Thiel himself would say that, insofar as it’s premised on comparison to others. If the job of investing is to do something unique, … Read More

A Shareholder Asks Some Inconvenient Questions

In addition to being a financial journalist, I work in money management, where I help design and manage funds that invest in stocks and bonds. My focus has always been on choosing securities based on investment quality, not on … Read More

Inflation Week!

Inflation data updates (like shark TV programming) come in weekly spurts. Recently (April 9), we received the updated data for the Producer Prices Index, which tracks inflation for the cost of inputs for businesses. Then last Tuesday, April 13, we … Read More

Start Worrying: The Case Against The Case Against Inflation

Ramesh Ponnuru and David Beckworth recently took to the New York Times op/ed page to clip the wings of inflation hawks. I certainly have no problem with ruffling the feathers of the perma-hawks — I’ve spent much of the past two decades … Read More

Not-So-Great Expectations: Why Treasuries Don’t Tell The Whole Inflation Story

Ramesh Ponnuru recently took up the case against inflation… well, more like the case against predictions of inflation. If I’m reading him correctly, he is making the case for policies in pursuit of higher inflation. To his credit, he does not … Read More

CBO: Our New Debt Projections Are Already Obsolete

In March, the Congressional Budget Office released its Long-Term Budget Outlook. In a recent presentation, the CBO director warned that the report did not take into account the recently signed American Rescue Plan Act, and that things will very likely be worse than the … Read More

Audit The Fed? We Just Did

Paulists have long demanded that we “Audit the Fed!” By Paulists, I mean the acolytes of former congressman Ron Paul, not the saint, though I suspect that he too might have been skeptical of quasi-public entities with enormous wealth and … Read More

The Next Crises: Debt And Debasement

We’re getting a little tired of using the word “unprecedented,” but no other word captures the recent trends in both deficit spending and money supply expansion. Also unprecedented are the stratospheric prices for cryptocurrencies. And there are good reasons to … Read More

What The Fed Really Said

The Fed recently released its regularly scheduled statement following its regularly scheduled meeting. While it was possible to read the entrails as being those of either a dove or a hawk, the markets came down squarely on the side of … Read More

EM Capitulation Was A Foreseeable Investor Error

Last spring we wrote a lot about the history of Emerging Market (EM) overperformance. That historically it tends to overperform developed markets; that it does not always overperform; the conditions under which it does overperform.

First, the tendency towards overperformance:

This chart … Read More

Biden Spending Leak Triggers Inflation Trade

On Monday, the New York Times ran a piece reporting that unnamed sources were indicating the Biden administration was about to release a gigantic spending proposal, one costing at least 3 trillion dollars.

“President Biden’s economic advisers are preparing to recommend spending as … Read More

Oil Rises

Remember early last year when oil prices ‘went negative’?

Well, despite scary headlines, the actual prices themselves didn’t go negative, but there certainly was a major drop in the value of oil. Markets often get the direction of the economy … Read More

Copper Shines

We’ve been looking at various surveys and market valuation-based statistics that have a track record of being able to generally get the direction of the U.S. economy right. Now we’re going to take a look at a few indicators … Read More

No, Mr. Bond Does Not Expect Us To Die

Forgive the levity of the title, but the sad passing of Sean Connery does call for a bit of a break from formality.

The villainous Goldfinger in the eponymous film captures Bond, straps him to a table, and points a … Read More

What The Stock Market Thinks About The Recovery

Investors have skin in the game. That means that when we are wrong and make the wrong allocations according to our error, we get punished. This does not logically imply that investors are always right. Bubbles seem to be … Read More

Weird Recovery, Part 2: Where Are The Profits?

We’ve seen that the recent recession and current recovery are different from anything we’ve seen in most of our lifetimes, and we’ve seen that the nature of this recession and recovery cycle has been that business did not slow down … Read More

What This Supply Chain ‘Mood Ring’ Tells Us About The Recovery

I wrote previously about how business surveys, such as the Purchasing Manager’s Index Survey (PMI), are good at showing not just the mood of supply chain managers but also what kinds of business conditions are actually occurring. Their sentiment … Read More