Peak Of The Fake Bull Market

We are probably very close to the peak of this ersatz bull market and economy. Peak vaccination distribution, along with the peak optimism about the vanquished pandemic and the re-opening of the economy. U.S. corporations are experiencing peak profit … Read More

How Central Banks Murdered The Markets

The Japanese Government Bond market is nearly $10 trillion in size. It is the 2nd biggest bond market in the world. However, it comes as a shock that this humongous market barely trades any longer.

The government of Japan has … Read More

15% Nominal GDP With A 1.5% Benchmark Treasury Yield?!

The Producer Price Index for the month of May was up 6.6% year over year. This was the greatest yearly increase since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the data. In addition, the Headline Consumer Price Index rose 5% … Read More

Fed’s Tools Are Broken

The U.S. central bank has metastasized from an institution that was originally designed to assist distressed banks, to one that believes its purview now includes perpetuating asset bubbles, fighting global warming and reconciling racial inequities. Another distortion of the original … Read More

Peak Growth And Inflation

The rates of growth and inflation are now surging in the U.S., but that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. What else would you expect when the Federal government has sent $6 trillion dollars in helicopter money to state … Read More

Freedom Fatality Of The Fed

In a recent interview, I referred to the Fed as a disgusting institution. I want to explain why I believe that to be the case, as I do not like to disparage anyone or any entity indiscriminately or capriciously—only when … Read More

Bond Market Rocks The Richter Scale

The global sovereign bond market is fracturing, and its ramifications for asset prices cannot be overstated. Borrowing costs around this debt-disabled world are now surging. The long-awaited reality check for those that believed they could borrow and print with impunity … Read More

When Will The Party End?

I’d like to explain why these already-stretched markets could crash by the start of the 3rd quarter. I’ve been warning over the past month, or about, that my Inflation/Deflation and Economic Cycle Model SM is forecasting a potential crash in equities around the … Read More

Interest Rate Threshold Keeps Dropping

Initial Jobless claims totaled 900,000 for the week ending January 16th, after shedding 965,000 in the week prior. These numbers are over four times greater than they were a year ago. I find this to be not only sad but … Read More

Taper Nervous Breakdown

The next time the Fed reduces its bond purchase program the market reaction should be more like a nervous breakdown rather than just a tantrum.

First let’s review a bit of the historical histrionics surrounding the initial Taper Tantrum. Back … Read More

Take The Under On 2021 GDP

Wall Street is universally bullish on the economy and stock market for 2021. For example, Morgan Stanley is on record predicting the U.S. economy will expand by 5.9% next year. The stock market has front-run this optimism. The most … Read More

Beware Market Land Mines: Stimulus, Vaccine Failure, Interest Rates

When the market cap of equities reaches 183% of GDP and gov’t bonds yield near 0%, or even less overseas, the notion that one can just buy and hold a balanced portfolio is extremely dangerous. The minefield is not packed … Read More

Inflation By Fiat

The Fed has now officially changed its inflation target from 2%, to one that averages above 2% in order to compensate for the years where inflation was below its target. First off, the Fed has a horrific track record with … Read More

The Economy Needs More Than A Vaccine

The hype and hope being promulgated by Wall Street and D.C. is that the imminent and well-advertised approval of vaccines will bring the economy back to what they characterize as its pre-pandemic state of health. However, even if these … Read More

Will Vaccines Become A Bridge To Nowhere?

The monthly U.S. budget deficit for June 2020 was a heart-stopping record $864 billion. For reference, last year’s deficit for all of fiscal 2019 was just under $1 trillion. In other words, the June deficit was almost as much … Read More

Fiscal Cliffs And The Self-Destructing Treasury

We can all be very confident that there will be no change to monetary policy for a very, very long time. But there is a fiscal cliff coming—and indeed has already begun.

It is clear that Mr. Powell is all-in … Read More

Trampoline Cliff Diving

We start this week’s commentary with some rather depressing news from Reuters:

The ratio of downgrades to upgrades in the credit ratings of leveraged loans has spiked to a record level, five times above that hit during the last global … Read More

What People Don’t Know About Gold

The sad truth is that few people really know very much about gold, especially when it comes to investing in the metal. They don’t understand what makes it so valuable and unique, and they know even less what moves its … Read More

Fed Now Owns All Markets

Since the Great Recession hit in 2008, central banks have been in the business of keeping insolvent governments from defaulting through the process of pegging borrowing costs near zero. These money printers are now in the practice of propping up … Read More

Money Printing Is The New Mother’s Milk Of Stocks

My friend Larry Kudlow always says that Profits are the mother’s milk of stocks. That used to be true when we had a real economy. But sadly, that is no longer factual because we now have a global equity market … Read More

Inflationary And Insolvency Implosion Of The Bond Market

We are all praying for the Wuhan virus to die. But there is something the virus can actually “cure” itself: deflation. I put the word cure in quotes because it’s not an actual issue in reality. Low inflation and disinflation are … Read More

Debt Be Damned

The U.S. National Debt is about to surge like never before, along with the rest of the entire planet’s gigantic pile of sovereign IOUs. America started with a $23.5 trillion debt before the Wuhan virus outbreak, with annual deficits … Read More

Permanently Addicted To Zero

In Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s appearance before Congress on February 11th, formerly known as The Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, he asserted that the U.S. economy was, “In a very good place” and “There’s nothing about this expansion that is unstable or unsustainable.” … Read More

Priced For Perfection

The stock market has now priced in a perfect resolution for all of its erstwhile perils. Wall Street Shills would have you believe that since the Fed has turned dovish it will always be able to push stocks higher. The … Read More