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Affluent Christian Investor | September 19, 2019

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Posts BySpencer, Author at Affluent Christian Investor - Page 2 of 3

February 4, 2016 |

Trump is Iowa’s Real Loser

While Ted Cruz technically won Monday night, the real victor was Marco Rubio. And while he technically came in second, the real loser was Donald Trump – and the betting markets show it. After holding a substantial lead over Rubio … Read More

November 16, 2015 |

Time For US, Russia, To Team Up Against ISIS

It is very temping right now to advocate a massive escalation of the war against IS in Syria and Iraq. This would be a mistake. It is in fact exactly what Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi – the proclaimed Caliph of the … Read More

November 12, 2015 |

Probability Markets Show Jeb’s Catastrophic Collapse

Tuesday’s Republican debate seems to have solidified Jeb Bush’s collapse. The feeling before the debate was that he needed a powerful performance that grabbed headlines in order to reverse the popular image of his campaign as being dead before voting … Read More

October 30, 2015 |

Political Prediction Markets: Rubio Rises, Jeb Collapses

Jeb Bush was supposed to be the Republican nominee. It was almost a foregone conclusion at the start of the campaign, but after leading the pack for six months in betting markets, he has now collapsed. This has been to … Read More

October 28, 2015 |

Political Odds Data: Queen Hillary Ascends, Prince Jeb Descends

Hillary was always going to win the nomination, and the betting markets always knew it. For nearly two months, political pundits were describing Hillary’s imminent collapse. She was losing ground in opinion polling for early states to Bernie Sanders, and … Read More

October 8, 2015 |

Trump, Hillary, and Jeb: Front Runners Odds Are Falling

The political betting markets have changed substantially in the past two weeks. The dominance of Jeb Bush and Donald Trump in the Republican nomination category is gone, and Hillary’s hold on the Democratic nomination is getting weaker all the time.

Read More

September 24, 2015 |

Odds Monitor Shows Walker Support Goes to Rubio and Carly

Scott Walker, a candidate who was widely considered a frontrunner for the Republican nomination before the campaign began, dropped out of the race Sunday night. He had been declining in both opinion polls and political betting odds for some time. … Read More

September 22, 2015 |

Political Futures Market Data: Carly is the New Cruz

The first post debate poll – conducted by CNN – for the Republican presidential candidates is out, and its results are not particularly surprising: Donald Trump dropped from 32% to 24%, and Carly Fiorina jumped to second place with an … Read More

September 9, 2015 |

Iran Deal “The Best We Can Get”… When Obama’s in Charge

The standard liberal-internationalist response to criticism of the Iranian nuclear deal is that it’s “the best that we could get.”

To some extent, this is accurate. This might very well be the best, or close to it, we could have … Read More

September 2, 2015 |

China Not Looking for Global Domination

China’s foreign policy decisions and actions in recent years can generally be explained by the guiding ideology of the Chinese leadership: establishing China as the strongest regional power in East Asia in order to ensure China never experiences another “Century … Read More

August 26, 2015 |

Data Says Rumors of Hillary’s Death Somewhat Exaggerated

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign has been experiencing what many political analysts are describing as an “implosion” over the past several weeks. The combination of her inability to defend herself over the email scandal, and Bernie Sanders’ becoming a serious candidate, … Read More

August 19, 2015 |

Data is Clear: Trump Helps Jeb and Hillary

It has now been two weeks since the first Republican Presidential debate, and opinion polls are now being released. The changes in the past two weeks have been predictable: Donald Trump rises, Jeb Bush falls, and previously-unknowns such as John … Read More

August 3, 2015 |

Trump Tarnishes Republican Reputation

Donald Trump’s rise has certainly disrupted the race for the Republican nomination, but what sort of impact will his rise have on the general election?

In basic terms, Donald Trump’s presence helps the Democrats in the same way it helps … Read More

July 29, 2015 |

Oddsmakers on Trump Surge, It’s Helping Jeb Bush

Donald Trump’s rise in presidential opinion polls has not been accompanied by a real analysis of what his candidacy means for the race as a whole. While Donald Trump is not a serious candidate for president himself, regardless of whether … Read More

July 22, 2015 |

Official Odds of a Trump Win

The political news that dominated the past two weeks was the rise of Donald Trump. A month ago, Donald Trump was barely present in opinion polls; today, his approval ratings double those of the runner-up, Jeb Bush. Even after the … Read More

July 13, 2015 |

Grexit: “Experts” Wrong, Bookies Right

In the lead up to the General Election in the United Kingdom in May, opinion polls consistently showed the Conservative and Labour parties as neck-and-neck. As a result, until the night of the election, mainstream political pundits were predicting … Read More

September 19, 2014 |

Islamic State: Are We Going to Destroy Another of Iran’s Enemies?

On September 10th, President Obama outlined his general plan for “degrading and ultimately destroying” the organization which calls itself Islamic State. Among analysts and commentators of the Islamic State crisis in Iraq and Syria, there has been an unusual consensus: … Read More

September 3, 2014 |

Reports of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

According to NATO estimates, there are at least 1,000 Russian military personnel currently operating in Ukraine. A rebel official from Luhansk has stated that there are 3,000 to 4,000 Russian soldiers “on leave” from the Russian army assisting his forces. … Read More

July 31, 2014 |

How Samuel Huntington Predicted Ukraine

The civil war in Ukraine, the civil war in Iraq, and the relaxation of US sanctions against Iran have demonstrated that political instability is now a very serious factor for international markets. US decline has given the various great … Read More

June 6, 2014 |

The Degeneration Of NATO

NATO ceased to be a genuine military alliance in 2004, when idealists made the short-sighted decision to include the small, weak, vulnerable states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia in the alliance. This inclusion increased the chance of the United … Read More

April 26, 2014 |

What CNN’s Fareed Zakaria Got Wrong About Russia Last Week

Every week, Fareed Zakaria opens his CNN show GPS by giving the audience his “take” on the key events of the week. More often than not, the subject of Fareed’s opening argument is what American conservatives were wrong about … Read More

April 23, 2014 |

Why Putin Will Not Invade Ukraine

For Putin to annex eastern Ukraine as he did Crimea would be an uncharacteristically foolish move, coming from a shrewd statesman with a proper understanding of the nuances of international politics. Provoking a war with the Kiev government would have … Read More

March 12, 2014 |

Russia’s Security Dilemma

There is a concept in realist international relations theory called the “security dilemma.” Among other things, this refers to the inherent problem in international politics wherein state actions taken purely for defensive motivations almost always appear offensive in the eyes … Read More

February 4, 2014 |

Obama’s Entitlement Zones Vs. Xi’s Freedom Zones

A few weeks ago, on the 50th anniversary of the beginning of LBJ’s War on Poverty, President Obama announced the first of 20 ‘Promise Zones’. To briefly summarize, these zones are relatively poor cities or counties where there will … Read More

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